Tag Archives: tropical storms

Statistics Predicted Hurricane Would Hit Jamaica In 2012

I was busy researching material online for my next post, when I came across a startling discovery.

It had been statistically predicted that the next time Jamaica would be hit by a tropical system would be before the end of 2012.

My intention was to resource information that could possibly explain the theory of Jamaica’s luck in escaping major hurricane hits, in spite of their imminent and definitive threats.  It is a long known fact that on many occasions, just hours before a direct hit should occur, storms seem somehow, to miraculously veer away from the Island, as if being pulled by some huge magnetic force.

In the course of my research, I came across a website simply titled Hurricane City.  They posted statistics showing Kingston’s history with tropical systems.  Some of it I really didn’t understand too well but take a look at the last section (this was posted it seems, at the end of 2011):  Statistically, it was predicted Kingston would get hit by a tropical system this year – they predicted on or around September – we got hit in October.  How curious is that?

Here is a copy of the postings:

Current weather(br)=brush (ts)=Tropical Storm (bd)=Back Door,meaning coming from over land from opposite coast.Not all names are noted,also storms before 1950 were not named.Not every stat on every storm description is given.


Years within 60 miles
1874,1879ts,1880br,1880,1884tsbr,1886,1895br,1896,1898tsbr,1899ts,1901tsbr,1903,1909tsbr,
1910br,1912,1915,1916,1917br,1918tsbr,1924ts,1928ts,1931ts,1932ts,1933ts,1933br,1934ts
1942ts,1944,1951,1980,1988,1994ts,2004,2005br,2007,2008ts
36 times in 140yrs end of 2011

Names from list above
Charlie,Allen,Gilbert,Gordon ,Ivan,Dennis,Dean,Gustav,

Longest gap between storms

29 years 1951-1980

How often this area gets affected?
brushed or hit every 3.89 years

Average years between direct hurricane hits.(hurricane force winds for at least a few hours)
(14h)once every 10.00 years

Average MPH of hurricane hits. (based on advisories sustained winds, not gusts)
110mph

Statistically when this area should be affected next
before the end of 2012